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OP-ED
"The US Could Bolster India's Economic Reform"
By David Sloan
International Herald Tribune
September 14, 2000

David Sloan, a Washington-based consultant who covers South Asia for The Scowcroft Group, is a contributing author for The Forum for International Policy and President of Corporate Strategies International.

TASTINGTON — Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee needs help. U.S. business and government officials should use his visit to buttress India’s struggling economic liberalization program.

America is India’s biggest trading partner and foreign investor, but its influence is not limited to these flows. With both countries now emphasizing areas of convergence rather than theft differences, relations are increasingly warm. Mr. Clinton’s visit to New Delhi in March was the first by an American president in 22 years. Washington can play an important role at a time when further Indian liberalization is under attack at home.

Outwardly, the Indian economy appears to offer scant cause for concern. Since the reforms of the early I 990s, the pace of economic growth has nearly doubled. Because of India’s insularity, its economy largely escaped the East Asian financial crisis, posting one of the world’s fastest growth rates in the past two years.

India’s avenge growth of 6 percent during the 1990s translates into just a 4 percent rise in per capita income when the rate of population growth is included, If India could sustain a 10 percent growth rate, living standards could improve nearly five-fold over two decades.

Accelerated growth could also improve prospects for political stability, hampered by regional competition between the more dynamic south and the lagging north.

Further liberalization is proving extremely difficult politically. Mr. Vajpayee has made some progress in opening the insurance sector and reducing the government’s role in telecommunications. But populists in his 22-party government have avoided crucial measures that would prune a dangerously high fiscal deficit and free up funds for needed investment in infrastructure and more private sector borrowing.

In an effort to recapture its eroding electoral base, the opposition Congress Party, which spearheaded the first wave of reforms, is poised to repudiate them.

The odds for additional economic restructuring are so dicey that one of India’s leading think tanks plans to distribute comic books explaining its virtues. The government has taken the lowest- common-denominator approach by forming a commission to determine reform priorities and how to sell them.

American leaden can ex plain why India’s future hinges on further, faster reforms. Mr. Vajpayee’s stop in Washing ton will receive huge media coverage in India and present good opportunities for American economic diplomacy.

For maximum effect, the U.S. message should center on information technology, a source of pride for all Indians but where outdated thinking hampers the new economy.

Given India’s woeful infra structure, why does a state- owned company retain a virtual monopoly on Internet gateways? What is the nation al benefit of a high sales tax on information technology products imposed by northern Indian politicians jealous of I the south’s success?

The U.S. message should also address some Indians’ fossilized view of the domestic effects of global trade liberalization. India should be leading the charge for a new multilateral agreement that features a second Information Technology Agreement and reduces barriers to electronic commerce and trade in high- tech services.

India will chart its own economic course. But now that the world’s two largest democracies are talking with rather than at each other, the United States should focus on areas where it can make a real difference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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