David
Sloan, a Washington-based consultant who covers South Asia for
The Scowcroft Group, is a contributing author for The Forum for
International Policy and President
of Corporate Strategies International.
TASTINGTON
— Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee needs help. U.S. business
and government officials should use his visit to buttress
India’s struggling economic liberalization program.
America
is India’s biggest trading partner and foreign investor, but its
influence is not limited to these flows. With both countries now
emphasizing areas of convergence rather than theft differences,
relations are increasingly warm. Mr. Clinton’s visit to New
Delhi in March was the first by an American president in 22 years.
Washington can play an important role at a time when further
Indian liberalization is under attack at home.
Outwardly,
the Indian economy appears to offer scant cause for concern. Since
the reforms of the early I 990s, the pace of economic growth has
nearly doubled. Because of India’s insularity, its economy
largely escaped the East Asian financial crisis, posting one of
the world’s fastest growth rates in the past two years.
India’s
avenge growth of 6 percent during the 1990s translates into just a
4 percent rise in per capita income when the rate of population
growth is included, If India could sustain a 10 percent growth
rate, living standards could improve nearly five-fold over two
decades.
Accelerated
growth could also improve prospects for political stability,
hampered by regional competition between the more dynamic south
and the lagging north.
Further
liberalization is proving extremely difficult politically. Mr.
Vajpayee has made some progress in opening the insurance sector
and reducing the government’s role in telecommunications. But
populists in his 22-party government have avoided crucial measures
that would prune a dangerously high fiscal deficit and free up
funds for needed investment in infrastructure and more private
sector borrowing.
In
an effort to recapture its eroding electoral base, the opposition
Congress Party, which spearheaded the first wave of reforms, is
poised to repudiate them.
The
odds for additional economic restructuring are so dicey that one
of India’s leading think tanks plans to distribute comic books
explaining its virtues. The government has taken the lowest-
common-denominator approach by forming a commission to determine
reform priorities and how to sell them.
American
leaden can ex plain why India’s future hinges on further, faster
reforms. Mr. Vajpayee’s stop in Washing ton will receive huge
media coverage in India and present good opportunities for
American economic diplomacy.
For
maximum effect, the U.S. message should center on information
technology, a source of pride for all Indians but where outdated
thinking hampers the new economy.
Given
India’s woeful infra structure, why does a state- owned company
retain a virtual monopoly on Internet gateways? What is the nation
al benefit of a high sales tax on information technology products
imposed by northern Indian politicians jealous of I the south’s
success?
The
U.S. message should also address some Indians’ fossilized view
of the domestic effects of global trade liberalization. India
should be leading the charge for a new multilateral agreement that
features a second Information Technology Agreement and reduces
barriers to electronic commerce and trade in high- tech services.
India
will chart its own economic course. But now that the world’s two
largest democracies are talking with rather than at each other,
the United States should focus on areas where it can make a real
difference.