The U.N. panel on
climate change warns of mass extinctions, droughts, floods and fires. Less
remarked upon but also disturbing: The effort to slow global warming could speed
up the spread of nuclear weapons. We need a new approach to avoid global warming
and nuclear proliferation merging into an environmental and security nightmare.
Why? Global
electricity demand is growing quickly. Meeting that demand with coal-fired
plants will continue to spill massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere. The only hope to confront global warming effectively is to do all we
can to conserve energy, expand renewable sources - and, yes, build more nuclear
power plants.
Demand is growing so
fast that the world will need to build about 1,000 reactors by 2050 to maintain
nuclear's current 16 percent share of global electricity supplies. Thirty
reactors are under construction in 12 countries, with many more planned or
ordered.
More reactors,
however, means more enriched uranium and more plutonium-laced spent fuel. If the
facilities to handle these materials also proliferate, more and more countries
will end up with the bomb capability we have tried so hard to keep out of
Iranian and North Korean hands. Anxious neighbors may then decide that they,
too, need to develop their own bomb capabilities - if not the bomb itself - as a
matter of pride or security.
The spread of
nuclear weapon capabilities could spark instability, strip support for nuclear
energy or, worst of all, lead to the actual use of nuclear weapons. In addition
to the human toll and the blow to global peace and stability, nuclear
proliferation could ruin the possibility that nuclear energy can help in the
fight against global warming.
How can we preserve
the ability of nuclear energy to reduce global warming without sparking a
nuclear arms race? Fortunately, uranium enrichment and plutonium separation
technologies are complex and expensive. So nations that seek nuclear energy but
not weapons may opt to buy or lease nuclear fuel rather than building their own
plants, just as most have opted to buy or lease (rather than build) their own
commercial airliners.
In that spirit, the
suppliers of nuclear fuel services should offer cradle-to-grave fuel services on
attractive commercial terms to nations building nuclear reactors. Before they
give up their own option to build enrichment and reprocessing plants,
governments would need solid guarantees that their services would only be
interrupted in response to a material breach of their nonproliferation
obligations.
In order to be
credible, these guarantees could be backed by the International Atomic Energy
Agency, which can serve as the supplier of last resort as well as the
appropriate authority to judge whether a material breach has occurred. Of
course, discovery of a clandestine bomb program outside of a country's
safeguarded nuclear facilities would dissolve the fuel guarantee and open the
door to action against the offending state by the U.N. Security Council.
This approach would
greatly reduce the incentives for countries purely interested in energy to build
those troublesome facilities, while inviting appropriate international scrutiny
upon those nations (like Iran and North Korea) that insist on developing
technologies perfectly suited to bomb production, though they lack a credible
energy or economic justification.
Existing nuclear
fuel suppliers - nations and companies - should quickly agree to such an
approach, before so many other nations have embarked on their own nuclear fuel
programs that it is too late to turn back. To maintain a level playing field -
and pressure on the negotiators - the U.N. Security Council should call for a
moratorium on building new enrichment and reprocessing plants while the terms of
this new regime are being negotiated.
It will be painful
for governments to give up their ability to cut off nuclear fuel services on
political grounds, such as human rights abuses or other valid concerns about
another government's conduct. But the stakes for nuclear proliferation are too
high to be held hostage to other considerations, even important ones. Even worse
would be failure to act now, before our efforts to fight nuclear proliferation
and climate change end up accelerating one or both.
Daniel Poneman, who served on the National Security Council staff under
Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, is a principal in an international
advisory firm working in areas including the nuclear industry.