Last month the administration responded to Taiwan’s request for arms sales with approval of many of the weapons requested, but rejection or deferral of some of the most advanced weapons. Some critics have called this response too weak, saying it was done in an attempt to please China; others have called this response too provocative, saying it is likely to offend China.

Both these criticisms are using the wrong criterion for judging the decision. We should not base our decisions on whether we please or offend China. Our decisions should be based on whether the arms sales lead to. greater or less security for Taiwan, and what the ultimate effect will be on the security of the United States.

To see the effect of this decision on Taiwan’s security; consider: What if the United States were to “pull out the throttle” in supplying advanced weapons to Taiwan and additionally pass the Taiwan Security and Enhancement Act? It is safe to predict that this would result in an even greater quantity and quality of Chinese arms directed against Taiwan—more missiles, more ships, more sub marines, more fighter-bombers. These in turn would require the United States to sup ply even more advanced weapons for Taiwan. This could be the beginning of a regional arms race between China—augmented by weapon systems bought from Russia—and Taiwan—augmented by weapon systems bought from the United States. And China’s buildup of arms would be seen by India and Japan as a threat, driving them to respond with arms of their own. Such an arms race would lead to more defense but less security for all parties.

The administration’s decision to use moderation in providing Taiwan with arms was the right decision. It gives China and Taiwan the opportunity to direct their energies to the resumption of cross-strait dialogue, business, investment and traffic, including, for example, the initiation of direct air traffic between Taipei and Shanghai and Beijing. All of these would strengthen the incentives between Taiwan and the mainland, thereby improving the atmosphere for political dialogue.

An important consequence of such in creased interchange is that the cost of a confrontation would be magnified. for both sides. These practical actions would buy time, and time is essential in allowing China’s evolution to continue in ways that would facilitate a peaceful resolution.

But what if this approach by the administration does not work? What if China, even in the face of this moderation, undertakes a one-sided arms race? In particular, what if it continues to deploy ever more threatening weapons that target Taiwan?

In that case, the United States is obliged by the Taiwan Relations Act to respond, and the administration’s decision on arms sales is flexible enough to accommodate such an unfortunate development. Several of Taiwan’s requests for naval systems were not denied but deferred, pending a detailed assessment of its needs. Certainly, this assessment would be influenced by a buildup of arms directed against Taiwan.

Both sides ‘should consider, the real alternatives Taiwan’s goal of greater security cannot be ensured by. buying ever more arms. China’s goal of reunification cannot be ensured by raising its military threat to Taiwan. Neither side would “win” such an arms race; indeed, if other regional powers followed suit, it could result in a disaster for the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and would clearly be detrimental to American security interests.

But that outcome is not preordained. It is not too late for moderation. The administration’s response sets the tone. Chen Shui bian, president-elect of Taiwan, has made a pragmatic offer to start dialogue and confidence-building measures. It is time for serious reflection before all parties head down a dangerous path.