Within weeks, North Korea may start reprocessing 8,000 spent
fuel rods containing enough plutonium for five to six nuclear
weapons. Today we have no good options to confront that threat.
But if we do not act now, our options will only get worse.
North Korea may already possess one or two nuclear weapons, but
U.S. policy correctly calls for the Korean Peninsula to be free of
all nuclear weapons. In a matter of months, the six to eight
bombs' worth of plutonium Pyongyang could then possess would be
enough to support an offensive military strategy -- and to export.
North Korea has announced the restart of its existing nuclear
reactor, and it could finish construction of two larger reactors
that were frozen under the 1994 Agreed Framework. Within a few
years it could be churning out dozens of bombs' worth of plutonium
each year. By then, its secret enrichment program could be
producing bomb-grade uranium, too.
Under those circumstances, intense pressure would build in South
Korea and Japan to acquire nuclear weapons. The reverberations
would quickly extend to Taiwan and China, then India and Pakistan.
If North Korea continues to view unconventional weapon exports as
its chief cash crop, it will find numerous customers with adequate
means and motive. Access to plutonium could shave years off the
efforts of al Qaeda and other terrorists to obtain the weapon of
ultimate destruction.
We cannot afford to defer this issue. Time is on North Korea's
side; each day increases North Korea's nuclear and missile
capabilities, enhancing its military strength and bargaining
leverage -- while narrowing our options to respond. The North
Korean regime will ultimately follow other dictatorships into
oblivion, but this will not happen soon enough to spare us the
terrible consequences of its acquisition of weapons of mass
destruction. Indeed, if North Korea builds up its nuclear arsenal
while it sees the United States diverted by Iraq, it may enhance
its ability to survive that much longer and inflict that much more
harm.
What to do? First we should make clear to North Korea that
separating plutonium from the spent fuel rods at Yongbyon
represents an unacceptable threat to U.S. and allied security. We
should work with our allies in Seoul and Tokyo to make clear that
separation of that plutonium from the spent fuel would constitute
a "red line" that Pyongyang would cross only at its peril. While
attacking the Yongbyon facility is an option of last resort, the
best way to ensure that we do not need to consider it is to deter
Pyongyang now by demonstrating strategic clarity on this point.
Second, we should propose to North Korea that, in exchange for
freezing all nuclear activities, we would be prepared to discuss
the full range of security issues affecting the peninsula. While
the president is right not to yield to blackmail, under this
approach there is no need to "pay" Pyongyang to adhere to past
commitments. Instead the United States should propose to go beyond
the 1994 Agreed Framework to a comprehensive approach that, for
example, expands the inspection rights of the International Atomic
Energy Agency throughout North Korea and immediately secures the
removal of the 8,000 spent fuel rods from the peninsula.
In exchange for such an expanded set of obligations, the United
States should be willing to provide the kind of security
assurances North Korea seeks, as well as other steps to bring
North Korea into the community of nations. As the president has
said, our quarrel is not with the North Korean people, so steps to
improve their lot through increased trade and communications could
be considered favorably.
The United States should be willing to enter into these
discussions in any forum, multilateral or bilateral. The urgency
of the crisis brooks no delay over matters of form. Moreover,
direct talks represent no substantive concession to Pyongyang;
allowing plutonium reprocessing would.
While the North Korean challenge clearly is multilateral in
nature, pressing Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and Moscow to act is no
surrogate for U.S. leadership. First, these governments may join a
U.S.-led consensus, but they are unlikely to support a U.S. vision
of concerted action if Washington stands in the wings. Second, in
order to persuade reluctant governments to apply meaningful
pressure on Pyongyang, the United States needs to show a serious
effort to resolve the situation through diplomacy.
If the United States offers a clear vision of the diplomatic
solution it favors -- and a road map to get there -- it can
mobilize an international consensus on the North Korean challenge.
Only a united international community can muster enough pressure
to induce North Korea to reverse course. Otherwise, we will soon
face a rampant plutonium production program that could spark a
nuclear arms race in Asia and provide deadly exports to America's
most implacable enemies.
Brent Scowcroft was national security adviser under Presidents
Gerald R. Ford and George H.W. Bush. He is founder and president
of the Forum for International Policy. Daniel Poneman was on the
National Security Council staff under Presidents George H.W. Bush
and Bill Clinton.