The
United States has an enormous stake in the peace talks between
Israel and Syria, and the Clinton administration has indicated it
would be willing to ease the financial burden that any deal would
entail. What may be on the table at some point, however, is
something more controversial: a long-term American presence on the
Golan Heights.
Unlike
the multifaceted controversy between Israel and the Palestinians
over the West Bank, the is sues between Syria and Israel are
overwhelmingly about security. Put simply, whichever country
occupies or can quickly seize the Golan has a significant
strategic advantage over t other. Given t fact that Israel and
Syria have fought three wars since 1947, It is not plausible that
either would he willing to trust its security to the good will of
the other.
If
asked, we should do all we can to ensure Mideast security.
Thus
it is very possible that the security each side seeks could be
satisfied only by an outside presence on the border, it is
unlikely that Prime Minister Ebud Barak would agree to United
Nations peacekeepers, given Israel previous experience with such
an international force. In 1967 the United Nations pulled its
troops from the Sinai Peninsula upon tile demands of President
Nasser of Egypt; the Six-Day War followed.
The
only outside presence the two sides would be likely to agree on
would be the United States (or possibly the United States as well
as an other power chosen by Syria).
Of
course, an Amer military presence should be considered only ii
both Israel and Syria request it. But if they do, given the tens
of billions of dollars the United States has poured Into the area
and the recurrence of conflict in the region over the decades, we
should be prepared to give a substantial American security
guarantee.
The
history of the area makes clear that it would be unacceptable to
deploy a token force or an unarmed peacekeeping presence that
could be easily brushed aside in a crisis. Therefore, if it were
an essential element of a peace settlement the United States
should be prepare to deploy combat units equipped or ready to use
force against any a tempted armed incursion across U border.
Some
Americans might object that this would be costly and tie down our
forces in yet another global hot sp for an indeterminate period of
time. True on both counts, but given the preoccupation of the
United State for more than 50 years with Mideast security and the
vast costs we hay already incurred, the price in money and
manpower does not seem unreasonable. And the uniqueness of the
situation should keep it from setting an irresistible precedent
for tutor deployments elsewhere. After all, w now have combat
forces deployed to indefinite periods in regions far les critical
to our national interests, like Bosnia and Kosovo.
Would
we be creating another situation like that in Lebanon in the
1980’s with our soldiers subjected to dead guerrilla warfare?
Not likely. In this case the parties would have agreed this
deployment as being in their best security interests, and Syria
has been quite meticulous in preventing lesions across the
Syrian-Israeli be in’ in violation of agreements.
Of
course, we should hope that Syria and Israel can on their own work
out deal that does not require a Unit’ States p But if the two
sides determine that deploying American troops on the Golan is the
only w security can be guaranteed, our national interest dictates
that we do so.