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If everything goes according to
plan, the citizens of Nigeria will go to the polls in April of 2007
and choose a new president. The winner will become only the second
democratically elected leader to fill that position since Nigeria
gained independence from Great Britain in 1960. The process and
outcome of these elections have implications not only for Nigerian
politics and regional stability, but also for global energy markets
and international security.
Earlier this year, current
President Olesegun Obasanjo tacitly endorsed a proposed
constitutional amendment to allow him a third term (though he never
publicly stated his position on the issue). This amendment could
have undermined the rule of law in Nigeria, and even though it
failed it suggests that the possibility still remains that Obasanjo
may declare a “state of emergency” in order to extend his presidency
and remain in power. Barring some kind of extra-constitutional
measure on Obasanjo’s part, though, the elections will proceed and
Nigeria will have a new president late next spring.
Election Environment.
Historically, Nigeria has been politically divided by region.
Politicians from the Muslim-dominated North controlled power for
most of the post-colonial period, and when Obasanjo (a Southern
Christian) won in 1999 there appeared to be some kind of
understanding that he would be “allowed” to win the election as long
as the presidency reverted back to the North in 2007. Consequently,
Northerners claim that under this agreement power should shift back
to the North next year. According to popular opinion in many
Southern states, however, the next president should be from the
South-South region - the only region that has never produced a
president. Leaders from the South-East and North-East will also
make a run for the presidency, and the coming months are likely to
include an intense struggle for power among groups representing
various regions, ethnicities, and religions.
Presidential hopefuls must declare
their candidacies by December of this year. The ballot will have a
mixture of current state governors, political appointees, and
military leaders, possibly including:
·
Ibrahim Babangida – General and former military ruler
from 1985 to1993 (Muslim)
·
Atiku Abubakar – Current vice president (Christian)
·
Adamu Mu’azu – Governor of the northern Bauchi state
(Muslim)
·
Abdullahi Adamu – Governor of the central Nassarawa
state (Muslim)
·
Muhammadu Buhari – Former military ruler ousted by
Babangida in 1983 (Muslim)
·
Muhammed Buba Marwa – Military administrator of Lagos
state (Muslim)
·
Uzor Orji Kalu – Governor of southern Abia state
(Christian)
The campaign frontrunners will
likely come from this group, even though other state governors,
technocrats, and religious leaders have also decided to run, and
more will declare their candidacies in the coming months.
Potential Effects In-Country.
The elections of 2007 will have important consequences for Nigerian
economic and political development. The new president will be
forced to reconcile the need to repay his debt to those who helped
him into office (be they voters or regional power brokers) with the
following critical issues:
·
Reducing corruption and cronyism in government-private
sector cooperation.
·
Jump-starting non-oil sectors, especially agriculture
and infrastructure development.
·
Improving Nigeria’s image regionally and globally, to
the end of attracting more foreign direct investment.
·
Guaranteeing safe development and extraction of
Nigeria’s rich oil and natural gas deposits.
The difficulty will be making
progress toward these goals, while simultaneously appeasing
disaffected voters.
Regional Issues.
Broader implications for the region of West Africa are important to
consider in their own right. West Africa is beset with a number of
daunting challenges, and an election success story in Nigeria would
provide hope to its regional neighbors through a peaceful transfer
of power in fair democratic elections. Furthermore, a powerful and
legitimate Nigerian government is vital to prospects for stability
and order in the region. In several instances the Nigerian military
has extended its influence into neighboring countries or beefed up
deployment forces of the African Union to help in peacekeeping
missions.
On the other hand, if Nigeria
fails in its democratic endeavors, tribal warlords and Islamists in
sub-Saharan Africa will feel encouraged to continue vying for power
outside of a transparent democratic structure with potentially dire
consequences.
Out of Africa. The
outcome of the 2007 Nigerian presidential election has a number of
implications outside of Africa, particularly in the United States
and Western Europe. African countries are increasingly contributing
to the global oil supply, especially as foreign companies further
develop reserves in the Niger delta. With political turmoil in
other oil-exporting countries - notably in the Middle East - global
economic growth depends on safe and manageable energy supplies from
sources such as Nigeria.
In 1994, Robert Kaplan argued in
Atlantic Monthly that Africa, especially West Africa, is far
more geopolitically relevant than most world governments treat it.
More than a decade later, after the negative consequences of ethnic
conflict, militant Islamic extremism, and a global AIDS epidemic
have been felt all over the world, his words have proved prescient.
West African politics, and in particular the Nigerian elections of
2007, have implications for economic markets and national security
issues in countries across Europe and North America. Western
leaders ignore Nigeria at their own risk.
Brian Polley was a Summer
Associate at The Forum for International Policy in 2006. Mr. Polley
received his undergraduate degree from the University of Texas, and
is currently working towards his M.A. from
the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M
University. |